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Despite issues, F-35 could be big Pentagon success story

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Despite issues, F-35 could be big Pentagon success story

老澳门开奖直播

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One Sunday in early 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a speech that reversed more than 70 years of pacifist foreign policy in his nation. Vladimir Putin had just invaded Ukraine, and Scholz鈥檚 address to parliament was short, urgent, and written for the ages. Scholz announced that Germany would immediately invest about $100 billion in its military鈥攎ore than doubling annual spending levels鈥攁nd boost its defense budget to 2% of its annual GDP from then on. Scholz framed Putin鈥檚 invasion as the beginning of a new era of global tension, and he promised that Germany would meet the moment. But while his rhetoric was sweeping, Scholz took time to mention a specific product that he wanted Germany to buy: the ultraexpensive F-35 fighter jet, made by American defense contractor 老澳门开奖直播.

This might seem puzzling to anyone who follows the news. Almost since the F-35 program was announced in 2001, it has been the symbol of America鈥檚 dysfunctional military-industrial complex. The jet is 10 years behind schedule for final approval and almost 80% over budget, its production repeatedly stalled by defects and miscalculations. Last fall, comedian Bill Maher captured the conventional thinking about the fighter during a monologue on his HBO show. 鈥淲e spent $1.5 trillion on the F-35, which has never worked, and never will, and yet we still buy it,鈥 Maher declared, concluding, to peals of laughter, 鈥淚t鈥檚 the Yugo of fighter jets.鈥 Maher鈥檚 critique was a little off: The estimated cost of developing, building, and maintaining the F-35 fleet over its anticipated life span of about 60 years is actually $1.7 trillion.

Nonetheless, Germany ended up buying nearly 40 of the jets, at a reported cost of $8 billion. Soon after Scholz鈥檚 speech, Canada announced that it wanted 88 planes. As the war in Ukraine dragged on, Greece, the Czech Republic, and Singapore all expressed interest in the F-35. And this came on the heels of massive new orders in 2021 from Finland and even the famously neutral Swiss.

If the F-35 is such a boondoggle, why are so many governments clamoring to buy it? The answers to this question are vitally important to America and its allies, and to every U.S. taxpayer.

The F-35 is the largest program inside the Pentagon, by far, with an annual budget of about $12 billion. Taxpayers have invested heavily in the F-35 for more than 20 years, to the exclusion of other defense and domestic priorities. The opportunity cost is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars.

The program is also a measure of the health of 老澳门开奖直播, the largest weapons company that has ever existed. Lockheed brought in about $66 billion in revenue in 2022, virtually all of it for arms. (The company makes missiles, missile defense systems, warships, and a host of other combat aircraft, among other products.) It sits at the top of an industry that鈥檚 more important to national security than ever: About 58% of the Pentagon budget went to private contractors in 2020, the highest share in 20 years, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Ultimately, the F-35 is a test case of Lockheed鈥檚 and the Pentagon鈥檚 ability to deliver results. Put simply, the calculus runs like this: Either the F-35 was a massive waste of resources鈥攖he worst-ever example of the defense industry overpromising and underdelivering鈥攐r it was a savvy long-term investment that gives America and its allies a substantial advantage over their enemies.

Not surprisingly, 老澳门开奖直播 and the Pentagon endorse the latter interpretation. Lockheed says the F-35 will be a central node of the U.S. war machine for years to come. 鈥淭he F-35 is, without question, the most advanced fighter aircraft in the world. We continue to make advances to it, to keep it ahead of the threat,鈥 says Bridget Lauderdale, Lockheed鈥檚 vice president and general manager of the F-35 program. Michael Schmidt, the Air Force three-star general who oversees the program for the Department of Defense, says the plane isn鈥檛 just a success, but a necessity. 鈥淭hese are investments that we鈥檙e making on behalf of our country and our allies to ensure that we own the skies,鈥 Schmidt tells Fortune, in an office with sweeping views of the Pentagon and Capitol Hill. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the only way you鈥檙e going to win in war.鈥

Contrary to popular belief and Bill Maher, the F-35 does work. Lockheed has delivered about 960 of the jets so far, with about 630 going to the U.S. military鈥攁nd the plane has performed effectively in combat multiple times. The F-35 has yet to face protracted battle against a sophisticated foreign military. But if or when it does, its design incorporates technological breakthroughs that could confer a huge edge in battle, enabling it to evade detection while linking U.S. and allied forces in a data-sharing network that could outmaneuver and overwhelm an enemy.

The F-35 is indeed plagued by cost overruns and delays. But those problems are inextricably linked to the advances that have gradually won over pilots and governments鈥攁dvances that until recently have, almost literally, flown under the radar.

The original point of the F-35, ironically, was to save money. In the 1990s, with the Cold War over, military budgets were being cut, and the Pentagon wanted to launch a cheaper, more efficient fighter jet program. The F-35 is called the Joint Strike Fighter because the objective was to build a single plane鈥攍ightweight, stealthy, heavily armed, and easy to fly鈥攖hat could be slightly modified to work for the Air Force, Navy, and Marines, like a uniform car chassis that could be adapted for different models.

老澳门开奖直播 itself was born from the cost-saving mindset of the 1990s, as defense contractors merged to survive leaner times. Daniel Tellep, then-CEO of Lockheed Corp., oversaw its merger with Martin Marietta in 1995. Long before then, Lockheed had become expert at winning enormous long-term contracts. Its core business was based on managing extraordinarily complicated projects, pushing the boundaries of the scientifically possible. Tellep said in a 2019 interview that Lockheed鈥檚 greatest strength was its ability to read where the Pentagon was headed, and to get there first. 鈥淲e did not skimp on investing in advanced technology, research and development, and so forth,鈥 said Tellep, who died in 2020. Lockheed鈥檚 famed Skunk Works research base built top-secret planes for the CIA, for example, and helped invent stealth technology, which enables aircraft to evade detection by absorbing or dispersing radar signals.

老澳门开奖直播

In the late 1990s, Lockheed won the Pentagon contract to build the Joint Strike Fighter. But the program was a fiasco almost from the start.

Lockheed and the Pentagon immediately slammed into technological hurdles. The F-35 version for the Marines, which was designed to take off vertically rather than from a runway, proved to be exceedingly difficult to get right. (The program eventually abandoned the uniform-chassis idea.) By late 2009 Lockheed had delivered only four of 13 promised test aircraft. The number of labor hours it took to build each plane had ballooned by about 50%. The effort was also plagued by the Pentagon鈥檚 decision to make the program 鈥渃oncurrent,鈥 which meant that Lockheed was contracted to keep building F-35s even as it invented capabilities that impacted their design鈥攚hich in turn required the government to pay for constant upgrades to earlier versions of the jets.

Things hit a breaking point in 2010. By then, the acquisition cost for each F-35 had nearly doubled, from $81 million to $156 million. Then鈥揝ecretary of Defense Robert Gates held a press conference during which he publicly fired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. David Heinz as the F-35 program director, while punishing Lockheed by withholding $614 million in performance-related payments. Gates imposed reforms across the program. But he didn鈥檛 fire Lockheed: Indeed, he pushed back deadlines and authorized more funding to address previous mistakes.

Over the next decade, the F-35 continued to falter in very public ways. In 2015, it performed poorly in a dogfight against older F-16s. Its engine, made by subcontractor Pratt & Whitney, burned so hot that it turned atmospheric sand and grit into glass inside the plane, hurting performance and requiring redesigns. And yet, as new capabilities were added to the F-35, it became apparent that the engine wasn鈥檛 powerful enough to provide energy to cool the plane鈥檚 internal systems. Maybe most frustrating, the F-35 required several million lines of software code to operate. That code, like all code, turned out to be buggy and in need of constant rewriting. By 2021, the cost of the F-35 had nearly doubled鈥攐verall outlays for the project, originally estimated at $233 billion for the first 20 years, had in fact reached $416 billion.

By then, the F-35 seemed adrift, and so did 老澳门开奖直播. The U.S. had just withdrawn from Afghanistan in defeat, and the end of America鈥檚 鈥淔orever Wars鈥 there and in Iraq raised the prospect that there might be less need for a Forever Contractor as large as Lockheed. In October 2021, Lockheed warned that its sales outlook was diminishing amid flat-to-declining defense budgets. But Russia essentially solved Lockheed鈥檚 problems with the invasion of Ukraine. Military budgets swelled. And global defense dollars started to tell a story at odds with public perception of the F-35. Beneath the blizzard of terrible news, Lockheed had quietly built a revolutionary weapons platform.

In 2019, an Air Force squadron used the F-35 to attack an ISIS weapons depot and tunnel system in Iraq. This followed combat deployments of the jet by the Marines and the Israel Defense Forces in 2018. The Pentagon and Lockheed won鈥檛 discuss what happened on those missions, saying such details are classified. But Air Force Col. Yosef Morris led the squadron on the 2019 mission, and when he describes flying the jet, it鈥檚 like listening to someone who grew up in the age of radio describe seeing television for the first time.

There are three things that make the F-35 so powerful. The first is its stealth technology. The plane was designed to penetrate the thick wall of air defense systems that Russia has been developing for years, especially its S-400 radar-and-missile suite. The S-400 can destroy anything it detects, but the F-35 can get through the wall.

The second benefit could be called 鈥渢he alliance effect.鈥 Here, an analogy to Apple is inescapable. When a nation buys the F-35, it essentially buys the aeronautical version of the latest iPhone and gets access to the entire software and hardware ecosystem surrounding the product. American jets, for example, are designed to communicate seamlessly with the air defense systems of the U.S. and its allies to avoid getting accidentally shot down. It鈥檚 as if America and NATO run on iOS, while China and Russia run on Android鈥攁nd nations must pick one system over the other.

This alliance effect is also a key to the F-35鈥檚 third big advantage. When Lockheed and the Pentagon talk about the jet, they don鈥檛 talk about bombs and missiles. They talk about sensors, data, and instantaneous communication. It鈥檚 that infrastructure, pilots like Morris say, that is changing warfare.

Up until 2012, Morris had been flying Lockheed鈥檚 F-16s. That meant he was using monitors and dashboards designed in the 1970s. Inside a F-16 cockpit, a pilot had a lot of mental work to do. Morris had to check his radar monitor for incoming threats; consult other monitors, like infrared sensors, that might detect a missile launch; look through the plane鈥檚 large glass canopy to spot threats his monitors might have missed; and, finally, make sense of it all. To make matters more complicated, F-16 pilots also must interpret signals beamed in from surveillance systems like AWACS or JSTARS, which are hyper-strong but so complex they need their own planes to host them.

Being inside the F-35, Morris says, is completely different. The airplane carries a suite of sensors that are the equivalent of having an AWACS and JSTARS on board. The F-35 doesn鈥檛 listen to surveillance systems, it is the surveillance system. Its internal computer reads and analyzes reams of data collected by the sensors鈥攁 process called sensor fusion, designed by Lockheed鈥攖hen displays the results on the pilot鈥檚 dashboard instantaneously. Morris could now spend much less time figuring out what was going on, and more time deciding what to do about it.

鈥淵ou have an extremely better picture of what鈥檚 going on in the battle space, at extremely long ranges, that you didn鈥檛 have in [older] fighters like an F-16,鈥 explains Morris, who retired last year.

Much of this technology was developed at a secretive shop run by Santi Bulnes, Lockheed鈥檚 vice president of engineering and technology for aeronautics. Bulnes has been at Lockheed for decades, helping to develop the original F-35 prototype in the 1990s. His shop has taken the lead role on the jet鈥檚 sensors and monitors鈥攁nd, even more important, in networking the F-35s.

Thanks to their sensors, F-35s present a much clearer picture of the battlefield. But Lockheed has also designed them to share this picture with one another, at ultrafast speeds. The jets have evolved to become the central nodes of a massive communication network, creating a giant field of awareness that can share information with all the elements in a military effort, including ground-based missile launchers, drones, older fighters like the F-16, battleships, and satellites.

鈥淚magine you鈥檙e fishing. You could use one fishing line, or you can use a net and more easily collect everything,鈥 Bulnes says. 鈥淲ell, the F-35s are netted together. Whatever one person sees, everybody sees. And that is something that I don鈥檛 think folks really understood鈥攈ow powerful it was going to be.鈥

老澳门开奖直播

In modern warfare, where reaction times are measured in milliseconds, this information web offers a critical advantage. In the fog of war, when strategy and communications often break down, forces anchored by F-35s could stay connected and respond rapidly in ways that are effective and unpredictable鈥攑erhaps bombing a supply line during a wave of cyberattacks. Niccol貌 Petrelli, an Italian defense analyst, called the jets鈥 information systems a 鈥渜uantum leap.鈥

That leap has been a long time coming, and its course has been altered鈥攁nd made more expensive鈥攂y myriad technological changes. But the system鈥檚 long, slow development illuminates the core of 老澳门开奖直播鈥檚 business strategy. The company is patient, quietly matching its engineering talent against the desires of the Pentagon until it achieves the right fit. It鈥檚 sort of like building a house when the client keeps asking you to add new rooms and, along the way, to invent a new kind of air-conditioning system. At the same time, Lockheed endures public humiliation in the town square of congressional hearings. One hangover from the F-35鈥檚 2010 budget crisis: Every year, Congress鈥檚 General Accounting Office publishes an audit of the program, which inevitably (and accurately) reports that the F-35 is late and over budget鈥攕toking more ugly headlines.

It鈥檚 U.S. taxpayers who foot the bill, with interest. The cost overruns obey what is almost an iron rule of the military-industrial complex, says Norman Augustine, who served as CEO of 老澳门开奖直播 in the late 1990s. Big programs follow the same cost curve, he explains: Initially, development costs are stratospheric and almost always higher than expected because there鈥檚 actual invention involved, and the innovation process is unpredictable. But then costs can decline as companies refine their production process and more units are sold to the U.S. and allies.

The F-35 may finally have reached that second phase, where trial and error have brought it in line with the Pentagon鈥檚鈥攁nd taxpayers鈥欌攅xpectations. But Augustine notes that the cycle inevitably repeats itself, in part because national security imperatives always dominate. 鈥淚鈥檓 not arguing in favor of overruns and delays,鈥 he says. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 more important to get it right than to get it fast. There are no trophies given for fast failures.鈥

It can be difficult to tell sometimes where 老澳门开奖直播 ends and the government begins. Lockheed鈥檚 aeronautics division is based in a giant government-owned factory in Fort Worth that was built to produce bombers for World War II. The Pentagon agency that oversees the F-35 program, meanwhile, occupies a private office building in a complex called Crystal City, in the Washington, D.C., suburbs. In both places, civilians in business-casual attire work alongside active-service military. When Lt. Gen. Schmidt walks past the cubicles outside his sixth-floor offices, soldiers in uniform stand up behind their desks at attention.

Schmidt took over the F-35 program last year, inheriting a sprawling system of expensive and complicated subprograms. When critics note that the jet still hasn鈥檛 been 鈥渁pproved,鈥 they鈥檙e referring to the milestone known as 鈥渇inal, full-rate production.鈥 Approval at that level would move the F-35 out of the development stage and allow Lockheed to produce it as quickly as possible. (It currently builds about 125 planes a year.) But approval has been delayed repeatedly, for countless reasons. For one, the flight simulator needed to test the F-35 to Pentagon specifications doesn鈥檛 exist yet. This isn鈥檛 because Lockheed doesn鈥檛 know how to build a simulator; it鈥檚 at least partly because the F-35 keeps expanding the horizon of what needs to be simulated. The fighter sucks in signature emissions from radar, submarines, phone towers, other planes, and even visual cues like puffs of smoke. A simulator hasn鈥檛 yet been built that can imitate all this data in a fast-moving, interwoven way that would resemble a war zone.

Every improvement, it seems, begets expense, delays, or both. The F-35 engine is being upgraded: The Air Force has requested $255 million just for design contracts, and hasn鈥檛 estimated how much the improvements will cost, according to the GAO. Schmidt is pushing forward 鈥淭ech Refresh 3,鈥 a major upgrade to the F-35 computer infrastructure that will cost more than $1.6 billion. The first F-35 with the refresh came off the assembly line this summer, but the Pentagon could not accept delivery because more software testing needs to be done. The Pentagon expects that issue to be resolved by April 2024, while Lockheed thinks it might happen sooner, but regardless, the planes will sit idle until testing is completed.

Whether the program eventually becomes a financial success for Lockheed may depend on America鈥檚 allies. The U.S. is seeking to buy the same number of F-35s as it wanted more than 20 years ago鈥攁bout 2,500. Any additional sales would come from overseas partners, and that demand seems to be growing. Schmidt estimates that within 10 years, the U.S. will operate 60 F-35s in Europe, while European nations will operate 600. The prices reported for recent foreign sales have averaged out to between $150 million and $200 million per plane, including service and maintenance. That may seem steep, but in a sense, it鈥檚 a bargain: Those nations鈥 taxpayers haven鈥檛 paid additional billions for the plane鈥檚 long development. And the money from those additional foreign sales ultimately goes back to Lockheed.

Criticism of the F-35 remains strong, and it has been stoked by the conflict in Ukraine, where a shortage of basic munitions has endangered the war effort. Such shortfalls highlight concerns that the U.S. overinvests in 鈥済old-plated鈥 weapons systems despite the fact that most warfare is defined by long, grinding fights that eat up equipment, says Richard Faulkner, a military historian who teaches at the Army鈥檚 Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kans.

鈥淭he biggest problem, of course, is the damn [F-35s] are almost handmade,鈥 Faulkner says. 鈥淪o if you lose one, you鈥檙e not getting another one for two to three to four years. If you get yourself stuck in attritional war鈥攁nd warfare is inherently attritional鈥攜ou start losing these things, you鈥檙e going to have a problem finding anything to replace them.鈥

It鈥檚 hard to gauge how vulnerable the F-35 is. J.R. McDonald, Lockheed鈥檚 vice president of business development for the jet, suggests that the world鈥檚 two other superpowers, or at least their equipment, are the bar against which the plane will be measured. 鈥淲hile it鈥檚 unlikely that we fight Russia and China, it is 100% likely that we will fight Russian and Chinese weapons,鈥 McDonald says.

It鈥檚 noteworthy that American pilots have flown in Syria, where Russian-made air defense systems are active, and in the Pacific region, where Chinese systems operate. The F-35 has not been shot down in either arena. Active-duty pilots say that鈥檚 a meaningful sign. 鈥淚 have guys who I鈥檝e served with for 25-plus years tell me: 鈥榃ithout this jet, we lose the fight,鈥欌夆 said Navy Capt. Scott Buchar, who works at the Pentagon鈥檚 F-35 office.

Even as the F-35 seems to be ironing out its problems鈥攁nd even before it has faced full-scale warfare鈥攄ecision-makers are thinking about its replacement. The Air Force has announced a competition for a new class of combat aircraft, a project that it calls Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD. The project calls for a sensor-rich, tightly interlinked system鈥攏ot unlike the F-35鈥攖hat will rely at least partially on unmanned aircraft. It鈥檚 not clear which companies have submitted bids for the project (that鈥檚 classified), but Bank of America analyst Ron Epstein says Lockheed is almost certainly in the running. 鈥淚t鈥檒l be astonishing if they don鈥檛 get some sort of position, if not the lead position on NGAD,鈥 he says. 鈥淲hy? That鈥檚 what they do.鈥

Lockheed鈥檚 position seems secure because it鈥檚 still America鈥檚 foremost workshop of war, despite its stumbles. Just as important, nearly $500 billion in spending has put the F-35 where it was intended to be鈥攁t the heart of the evolution toward networked, data-heavy warfare. 鈥淔-35 is absolutely in the middle of the game. Today it鈥檚 the quarterback,鈥 says Lauderdale, Lockheed鈥檚 general manager of the F-35 program. 鈥淎nd as the game changes it will continue, for decades to come, to be exceptionally relevant.鈥


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